A new poll of likely voters in Minnesota shows that Democratic candidates are ahead of Republican challengers in key races leading up to the 2026 elections. This survey was done by Emerson College Polling from February 6–8, 2026, with 1,000 likely voters and a typical margin of error of about three percentage points.
In a hypothetical matchup for governor, U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar, running as a Democrat, leads both of her potential Republican opponents by double digits. Against Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth, Klobuchar gets 51% support to Demuth’s 38%. Against Mike Lindell, Klobuchar’s lead is even larger, at 53% to 31%. Independent voters strongly favor Klobuchar by big margins in these matchups.
The poll also looked at a possible U.S. Senate race in 2026. In one scenario, Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan, a Democrat, leads Republican Michele Tafoya 47% to 41%, with the rest either undecided or choosing someone else. In another scenario, Democratic Representative Angie Craig also leads Tafoya by the same 47% to 40% spread.
On a generic ballot question about the Minnesota House of Representatives, Minnesota voters say they would choose a Democratic‑Farmer‑Labor (DFL) candidate over a Republican, 49% to 42%. All seats in the Minnesota House are up for election in 2026, and right now the balance of power is evenly split between the two parties.
The survey asked Minnesotans about how they feel about political leaders. A majority of voters, 56%, say they disapprove of the job President Donald Trump is doing, with 39% approving. Meanwhile, more people disapprove than approve of how Governor Tim Walz is doing his job (47% disapprove, 41% approve).
When it comes to what voters care about most, “threats to democracy” is the top concern. About 28% of voters name this as the biggest issue facing Minnesota. That’s more than those who list immigration (17%) or the economy (16%). Some voters (10%) wrote in issues related to immigration enforcement agencies, and a few mentioned fraud. This is notable because it’s the first time the poll found threats to democracy ranked above economic concerns. Nearly half of Democrats (49%) and a substantial number of independents (29%) see threats to democracy as the top issue, while Republicans more often say immigration is their main concern.
The poll also asked voters how they feel about the federal immigration enforcement agency ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement). Voters in Minnesota see ICE’s impact as more harmful than beneficial by a wide margin, 60% to 36%. Nationally, the numbers are somewhat similar, with 57% of voters saying ICE is more harmful than helpful.
Voters were split on whose immigration policies they prefer from the last two administrations. Forty‑two percent prefer the Trump administration’s immigration policies, 35% prefer the Biden administration’s, and 23% say neither. When asked whether ICE should be eliminated entirely, 46% said no, 42% said yes, and 12% were unsure.
The poll also included questions about two 2025 shootings involving ICE officers that gained public attention in Minneapolis. A majority of voters said the officer’s actions were not justified in both cases: 57% said the action in the shooting of Renee Good was not justified (34% said it was justified), and 61% said the action in the shooting of Alex Pretti was not justified (26% said it was justified).
Minnesota voters also shared their views on how the Trump administration handled the shooting of Alex Pretti. Most voters (59%) disapproved of the administration’s response, while 28% approved and 13% were unsure. Among party groups, almost all Democrats (94%) disapproved, a large share of independents (64%) disapproved, and most Republicans (62%) approved of how the administration handled the situation.
Overall, this poll suggests that Democrats are currently leading in Minnesota’s key 2026 races, and voters are particularly concerned about threats to democracy and immigration enforcement issues as they think about the upcoming election.
