Across the United States, the firearms industry has been feeling what many owners and dealers call a “Trump slump.” With President Donald Trump in the White House and widely seen as supportive of gun rights, shoppers have felt less urgency to rush out and buy guns. That’s because a big part of gun buying in modern America happens when people fear tougher regulations or restrictions — when they believe their rights may be tightened, they often hurry to buy before that happens. Since Trump’s election, many gun shops have reported quieter sales and fewer customers compared with the boom years triggered by fears of stricter federal gun laws.
But in the Twin Cities area of Minnesota — covering Minneapolis and Saint Paul — the pattern has been very different in the first weeks of 2026. Instead of joining the rest of the country in a sales slump, dealers there have seen a clear uptick in business, with far more people walking into stores to buy guns, apply for permits, or sign up for safety classes.
The surge in the Twin Cities doesn’t appear to be driven by the usual reasons like an upcoming election or new gun control proposals. Instead, gun store owners and local permit instructors point to recent federal immigration enforcement activity, which has roiled the region over the past month. Beginning late last year, the federal government launched what it called “Operation Metro Surge,” sending thousands of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents and other officers into Minneapolis-Saint Paul to carry out immigration sweeps. The aggressive operation drew widespread protests and reports of confrontations between activists and federal agents. During the operation, at least two Minnesotans — including local resident Alex Pretti — were fatally shot by federal agents, an event that shocked the city and sparked more public outcry.
That atmosphere of uncertainty and heightened tensions appears to have encouraged many local residents to think more seriously about personal safety and preparedness. At several gun shops around the Twin Cities, owners have reported that January this year brought one of the biggest year-over-year increases in customers in recent memory. Some stores describe sales up 30–40% compared with the same month last year, with a considerable portion of that growth coming from people buying their very first firearm.
In Hennepin County, Minnesota’s most populous, sheriff’s offices said they received roughly 1,400 applications for permits to purchase or legally carry a firearm in January — about a 70% jump from January 2025. And in Minneapolis itself, permit applications more than tripled compared with a year ago. St. Paul saw applications more than double. Many of these new applications came from people who had never before owned a gun or sought a permit, according to local law enforcement and trainers.
Gun safety instructors in the area say they’ve noticed a similar shift. Classes that teach people how to handle and use firearms safely — which typically fill up with seasoned hobbyists or those preparing for concealed-carry permits — are now drawing crowds of nervous first-time buyers, young adults, and people who don’t match the usual demographic of regular customers. The mood, instructors say, reflects a sense of personal concern about public safety and local unrest, rather than political fear of federal policy changes.
This local increase stands in contrast with national data showing a broader stagnation or modest decline in gun sales outside a few specific states. As the national market normalizes following big surge years during the pandemic and earlier election cycles, many dealers outside Minnesota still report quieter business and fewer impulse buys tied to federal political debates.
In the Twin Cities, though, the recent spike in interest appears to be real and sustained. Whether that trend continues — especially as federal immigration agents begin drawing down their presence — remains to be seen. But for now, local gun shops and training facilities are busier than they have been in years, and a new wave of residents are stepping into the world of firearm ownership for reasons that are specific to their community’s current situation.
